Think tank sees big win for BBM
BBM-SARA UNITEAM holds a proclamation rally at the Amoranto Sports Complex in Quezon City on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2022. Photos by John Orven Verdote
An independent research group sees two scenarios in this year’s election: a landslide victory for former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. or a close race where one candidate wins by just over 30%.
“It could be a landslide for Marcos on May 9 or a close race where we just have someone just over 30% winning the presidency,” Stratbase ADR Institute President Victor Andres said Wednesday. Dindo” Manhit.
Stratbase shared the research findings, including the results of Pulse Asia’s surveys of social weather stations.
Marcos topped those polls, enjoying a huge lead over his closest rival, Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo.
In the January survey published by Pulse Asia, Marcos got 60% voter preference. Robredo was a distant second with 16%.
He said that even if Marcos leads most of the pre-election polls, his ranking could drop, leading to tight competition.
However, Manhit admitted that Marcos ‘can win big’.
“Or Marcos is slowly declining… but no one is really winning,” he added.
Based on the presentation presented by Manhit, survey data revealed that support for Marcos peaked in December but then declined while numbers for Robredo and Domagoso increased.
However, Manhit said Marcos’ numbers were not dropping enough “to threaten Marcos right now.”
“So the other candidates have to work harder,” he added.
He said Robredo needed to find ways to improve her rankings because in some surveys she was not the second-choice candidate.
In the Pulse Asia survey, Robredo ranked fourth among second choice candidates.
The first second-choice candidate was Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso.
“This means that voters’ preference for Leni has such a ceiling that she will not be considered a second choice,” Pulse Asia research director Ana Tabunda said in an interview with ANC’s Headstart.
For Manhit, Robredo needs to find out how she can broaden support for her candidacy and break this “ceiling”.
For this year’s elections, the most important issue is economic, Manhit said.
“And that reflects the general population…75% are struggling with their low income,” he said.