GDP likely beats pessimistic third quarter forecast – Manila Bulletin

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The Philippine economy could likely outperform the pessimistic outlook for the third quarter following strong performance in the manufacturing sector, First Metro Investment Corp. said. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) in a joint report.

In the October issue of the Market Call, FMIC and UA&P said the most recent economic data suggested third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth should dispel some of the pessimism after a lockdown is imposed. stricter in Metro Manila from July to August.

In particular, FMIC and UA&P reported that manufacturing activity increased in September, the highest in six months. Likewise, manufacturing output maintained its triple-digit acceleration rate in August.

In addition, exports and imports of capital goods increased by 17.9% and 17.6% respectively in August.

The FMIC and the AU&P also noted that the economy created 2.6 million jobs, recouping 75 percent of the 3.4 million lost in July.

In addition, national government spending also increased by 34.2% in August compared to the previous year.

Public spending accelerated during the month mainly due to financial assistance to households affected by the implementation of the two-week reinforced community quarantine (ECQ).

“Philippine economic data released from September to early October did not somehow match the common observation that third-quarter GDP growth would be very bad,” they said in a released report. Wednesday November 3.

“Surprisingly, the manufacturing sector showed more exuberance than expected, with more than 400% year-on-year gains in June-August,” the report said.

However, FMIC and UA&P stressed that the economic performance of the last quarter would not be close to the 11.8% recorded in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the FMIC and AU&P expect inflation to remain high, and possibly up to five percent last month due to the lagged effect of the further surge in oil prices. raw.

“However, we still see headline inflation falling below 4% from December, as the huge rise from November-December 2020 would not be repeated,” the report said.

The FMIC and AU&P have said that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged for the remainder of the year, with the central bank remaining in favor of the growth imperative.


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